一 | New Delhi, Oct 10 (UNI) A delegation of Congress leaders on Monday told the Election Commission that no violation of the Representation of the People Act was done during the Bharat Jodo Yatra, and the NCPCR complaint of children being used for electioneering is baseless.
A delegation of Congress leaders including general secretary Jairam Ramesh, spokesperson Supriya Shrinate and senior leader Salman Khurshid met Election Commission officials to reply to a notice by the poll watchdog over a complaint by the National Commission for Protection of Child Rights (NCPCR).
The Congress leaders also filed a complaint against BJP functionaries alleging they were using children in a "malafide" and "perverse" way.
"We met the election commission on a lot of frivolous complaint filed by the NCPCR which is meant to protect children's rights. Instead they are electioneering, and making all sorts of bogus allegations," Shrinate said.
"We have filed a counter complaint against BJP and it's functionaries on how they are using children in a malafide way and a rather perverse order," she said.
Ramesh said the ECI was informed that no violation of the Representation of People's Act or any Model Code of Conduct was done.
"We told the ECI that in the Bharat Jodo Yatra,
neither the representation of people's act has been violated, nor any model code of conduct has been violated. So we fail to understand why did the ECI send us a notice. We gave a detailed document how the NCPCR has filed childish complaint that children are being used," said Ramesh.
"Rahul Gandhi ji went for prize distribution in a painting competition for 15 minutes, and it is being said children are being used for election," he said.
The Congress leader said the NCPCR, a body created during the UPA regime for ensuring protection of rights of Children, is now being headed by "BJP, RSS functionaries ".
"Thousands of people are coming everyday, children are coming with their parents, their families, everyone wants to click a selfie with Rahul ji. There is nothing illegal about that," he said.
"There is no election campaign happening. Rahul Gandhi ji is not telling children to vote for Congress... NCPCR was formed during UPA regine for ensuring child rights. Now for the first time it is being headed by workers of BJP, RSS," he said.
Khurshid said they told the ECI that other agencies should not give their work to the poll panel, and it is not good for the functioning of the commission. He also said that ECI is meant to watch over elections and there is no context of any poll in this case.
The NCPCR headed by Priyank Kanoongo had asked the ECI to carry out an inquiry and initiate necessary action against the Congress and Rahul Gandhi for allowing children to take part in its Bharat Jodo Yatra.
UNI AO SHK2157。
二 | 根据美国国内民调显示，在5月的第二周，拜登的整体支持率仍处于劣势，落后特朗普1.2个百分点，但二人整体支持率相差不大。拜登与特朗普再次在美国大选的“决赛”中相遇，会是上一次的选战再现吗？亦或是另有看点？本期节目，邀请海国图智研究院研究员王悠和民智国际研究院助理研究员曾继儒，带我们洞见美国。
三 | 美国国防部长奥斯汀曾承认，美国暂停了对以色列支援的共计3500枚炮弹，但同时可以看到，拜登4月末签署了向以色列提供264亿美元的额外战事援助的法案。美国对以色列减少的援助规模很有限，所以对战场形势的影响不会很大。
四 | 我们还需要关注美国未来在军事援助上的动向、在联合国的投票行为等，但至少表现出了拜登政府开始去审视对以色列持续、大规模援助的必要性。我们可以看到，美国政府高层对以色列的表态趋向严厉，四月末也制裁了一些极端以色列人，近期这些高层的动作确实可以反映出美国对以色列的态度从纵容转变至牵制。
五 |
六 |
七 | 同时，年轻选民也在流失，通常民主党会比共和党更受年轻选民的欢迎，但3月的民调数据显示高达63%的年轻人不赞成以色列在加沙的军事行动，如果拜登对以色列过于纵容，可能会大量丢失年轻选民的选票。另外，如果巴以冲突在拜登的优先事项里排得过于靠前，那么他投入在选举和其他事务上的资源就会更少。
八 | 但确实共和党和以色列的关系更亲密，因为奥巴马政府时期的一些历史原因，内塔尼亚胡和拜登的个人关系应该是不太好，对于内塔尼亚胡个人，他更希望共和党人上台，来保障以色列在中东的行动更加自如。
九 |
十 | 第二个关键时期是9-10月，举行的几场大选辩论。
十一 | 目前我们可以重点关注这些摇摆州的民调，从数据上来看，拜登会落后大概1.2个百分点，但是从趋势来看，从年初到现在，拜登的支持率是呈现出追赶的趋势，根据我的统计和判断，我认为目前拜登应该是大概拿215张选举人票，特朗普大概拿219票，还有104票在摇摆，我们看这104票的归属就可以判断大选最后的结果。当前主流分析认为，特朗普的赢面会偏大一些，他甚至可能会在今年选举中拿到超过310票。
十二 | 四月份的民调数据显示，只有54%的民众对本次选举抱有兴趣，比去年同期下降了两个百分点。
十三 | 2020年的投票率是67.7%，创下了历史新高，今年的投票率应该会2020年稍微低一些。
十四 | 今年年初后，拜登就在执行偏向严厉的移民政策。拜登上任以来从南部边境涌入600多万个非法移民，这个数字意味着特朗普时期的很多工作都白做了。今年年初，我们也可以看到26个州长一起呼吁拜登调整移民政策，甚至，德州的州长还要把自己州的非法移民送到其他的民主党的州里。
十五 | 但拜登更倾向于从政治层面解决这个问题，比如，拜登曾尝试通过一项两党提案，在非法移民达到一个数量后就关闭边境。拜登要求国会立法授权，虽然可以更加完整的处理这个问题，但在流程上更容易受到冗长的程序和党争的困扰。总的来看，拜登的移民政策本质上并不与特朗普的政策冲突。
十六 |
十七 | 而共和党人会更坚持白人至上主义和本土主义这样的价值观，共和党人认为移民会造成社会安全的恶化，且制造更多的政治分裂。
十八 | 之前有数据显示，一个州的移民每增加1%，那么共和党相应得到的选票会减少1%，那么共和党人就会对移民持有更加保守的态度了。领导人的态度对移民政策的影响不会特别大，因为两党的移民政策本质上是受到各方面因素的影响的，包括党派本身的立场，价值观纲领和选民的驱动等。
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